Everydle

Estimation · DAILY GAME

How likely?

Judge five daily probabilities on a one-in scale, then compare your intuition with the revealed odds and a too-common or too-rare result.

Added to Everydle ·

DailyProbabilityEstimationFive rounds
How likely? Day 288 asks about lifetime lightning risk, with a vertical one-in scale, an unsubmitted 1 in 2 estimate and a Lock it in button.

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OFFICIAL WEBSITE

This game is played on its official website. The image below is a preview, not an embedded game.

How likely? Day 288 asks about lifetime lightning risk, with a vertical one-in scale, an unsubmitted 1 in 2 estimate and a Lock it in button.Screenshot preview · Play How likely? on the official website ↗
Play on the official website ↗

Open the official site to play the daily questions.

What is How likely??

How likely? turns probability into a question of scale. Each round describes an event and the population or time span being counted. Choose a one-in-how-many estimate, lock it in, and see how far your guess sits from the reference odds. The free browser game has five daily rounds and does not require an account.

How to play

  1. Read the event and the smaller line defining its population, time span or repeated trial.
  2. Choose the denominator of your one-in estimate. Type it in the number field, or use the vertical scale; larger numbers mean rarer events.
  3. Press Lock it in to reveal the reference odds and the factor by which your estimate was too common or too rare.
  4. Select Next after a reveal to continue through the five daily questions. The fifth reveal offers See your day.

Does a bigger one-in number mean a more likely event?

No. The number is the denominator: one in a larger group is rarer. Read the line under the estimate before choosing a value, since a lifetime, a single spin and a worldwide population describe different questions.

What does the result factor tell you?

The reveal compares your denominator with the reference odds and labels the miss too common or too rare. A smaller factor is closer. The diagram keeps a marker for your guess beside the revealed value, so you can see whether the mistake was a small adjustment or a different order of magnitude.

Is this personal risk advice?

No. The questions use stated populations and time spans, not an assessment of your own circumstances. The publisher identifies sources for its figures and warns that values may be incomplete or out of date. Treat the reveal as a probability game rather than a guide to a personal decision.

Make your next move

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